特别推荐： 第79届奥斯卡完全获奖名单
Predicting the Oscars is an amateur's game — and I mean that in a good way. You don't have to have Academy sources to be a good guesser; in fact, some of the best are self-taught experts who live way outside the Hollywood bubble. Want to play at home? Now that guessing season has begun, here's a handicapping tip sheet.
No Country for Old MenWill the thriller (starring Josh Brolin) get enough votes to match its hype
It's better to be loved by some than liked by all.This is a good rule for life, but also for Best Picture nominees. In the Academy's voting system, each nominator ranks five movies by preference. The way their choices are then tabulated strongly favors movies that receive a high number of first- or second-place votes, the underlying principle being that in choosing nominees, passion should matter more than consensus. For proof of how this changes the playing field, look at the last two years, in which supposed sure thingsWalk the LineandDreamgirlswere left out of the Best Picture hunt. Being everyone's fifth choice isn't enough.
Movies you think are too cool to be nominated for Best Picture will be Nominated — for their scripts.Screenwriters, who do the choosing, have smart, adventuresome spirits. The last few years have brought writing nominations forPan's Labyrinth, Children of Men, A History of Violence, The Squid and the Whale
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